Hankinnan kuvaus
Below we outline a suggested approach. The service provider can also suggest an alternative approach as long as the objectives and deliverables in this service request are met. Any changes should be clearly justified and explained.
Phase I: Scenario analysis
• Identify the key drivers and key uncertainties of electricity demand in the future.
• Based on the possible development of key drivers, form at least two differing scenarios of electricity use. All scenarios should be consistent with the carbon neutrality of Finland in 2035 and full decarbonisation by 2050. For the purposes of the scenarios, the LULUCF net sink may be assumed to be on average -21 MtCO2e/annum during the whole period and negative emissions technologies may be used to compensate for the remaining few tonnes of emissions, but emission reductions must be prioritised. One of the scenarios may be chosen as the main scenario and the rest considered as sensitivity analyses.
• Model the corresponding cost-efficient electricity supply, taking into account the existing energy system, local resources, potential for demand.
Management and the required security of supply. The role and cost competitiveness of green hydrogen must be assessed.
• Identify the key enablers, such as the requirements on transmission and distribution grids.
• Estimate the investment needs, including generation capacity, flexibility sources and grid.
• Identify potential pain points, bottlenecks and items that are unlikely to realise timely with current market mechanisms and policy framework.
• Make deep dives into selected key pain points and enablers (2 deep dives as a minimum).
Phase II: Stakeholder input
• Together with Sitra, discuss and collect input on the assumptions, initial results, identified pain points, policy needs and a potential roadmap forward with the most important stakeholders.
Phase III: Revision and synthesis
• Based on the stakeholder input and consideration with Sitra, make the necessary adjustments to the assumptions and finalise the analysis.
• Form policy recommendations and a roadmap towards cost-efficient sector integration and decarbonised power supply.
Deliverables and Schedule
• Inception meeting (can be a teleconference): contractors and the Sitra team to discuss the objectives of the project and the plan forward.
• Inception report: a brief report outlining the methodology, modelling framework and project plan based on the proposal and inception meeting
• An interim report after Phase I: presenting the methodology, draft modelling results and initial analysis.
• Stakeholder meetings together with Sitra (approximately 8-13 meetings/teleconferences): validation of the draft modelling results and analysis and development of policy recommendations.
• A draft final report (in Word format) to be commented by Sitra.
• Final report (in Word and pdf) and a PowerPoint presentation outlining the methodology and analysis and key findings. The final report must include an easy-to-absorb executive summary with concrete takeaways for policy makers, as well as background material suitable for expert discussions. The assumptions and methodologies must be presented in a transparent way, but there is no need to disclose proprietary details of the used models or data (proprietary data must be clearly indicated in the proposal).
• The service provider is expected to prepare and deliver 1-2 presentations in Finland to present the results in public.
• Regular meetings (can be teleconferences) with Sitra, expected on a weekly basis, to discuss the progress of the project.
All deliverables will be in English. Sitra may do a Finnish summary for the policy makers based on the project materials. The project is expected to start in October 2020 and finish by March 2021. Exact dates of the draft final and final report are to be agreed on when signing the assignment contract.